Analysis of Influencing Factors of Food Trade Network of Countries along the Belt and Road
Abstract
Against the backdrop of globalization, China launched the "Belt and Road" initiative in 2013. Food trade has thus become one of the key areas of cooperation among countries. As a fundamental material guarantee for human survival, the importance of food is self-evident.
This paper focuses on the grain trade volumes of the 66 member countries of the BRI at its inception, analyzing the structure and influencing factors of the grain trade network from 2003 to 2022 using network centrality analysis and Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TERGM).
Using the aforementioned methods, this paper draws the following main conclusions: (1) China shifted from being a grain exporter to a grain importer, with a significant disparity between imports and exports. (2) Russia and Turkey played dual roles in the grain trade network, acting as both major exporters/importers and key intermediary countries. India, Russia, and Ukraine were the top grain exporters, while China emerged as the largest grain importer. (3) Variables such as GDP, total population, grain production, and total fertility rate had a significant impact on the trade network of BRI countries before and after 2013.
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Introduction
Against the backdrop of globalization, the "Belt and Road" initiative serves as a transnational economic cooperation framework that has a profound impact on promoting food trade among countries along its route. This initiative, by strengthening infrastructure construction and enhancing regional connectivity, provides convenient conditions for food trade, which helps to alleviate global food security issues.
Food security is a significant strategic issue concerning national security. Research on food trade issues remains a hot topic at present. Chen Yiwen and Li Erling[1] combined social network analysis with spatial econometric analysis to deeply analyze the structural characteristics of the food trade network between China and other countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative, and identified that China's food trade pattern with these countries has shifted from being export-oriented to importoriented. Du Hangcheng[2] used stochastic frontier analysis technology to construct a stochastic frontier gravity model and a trade inefficiency model, aiming to explore the potential capabilities of China and the countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in the field of agricultural product trade. The research results show that China's economic growth and the expansion of the population scale of trading partner countries have a significant positive impact on China's export of agricultural products to RCEP member countries. Xu Chuan-chen and Jiang Han[3] used the CONCOR method for non-overlapping community analysis of the international food trade matrix and found that the distribution of national communities in the international food trade network has certain characteristics: some communities are completely characterized by geography, some communities completely break through geographical restrictions, and some communities have both characteristics. The members of the communities will change over time, and the number of community member countries in different years is roughly the same.
Conclusion
This article focuses on the grain trade volumes of the 66 countries involved in the BRI at its inception, covering the period from 2003 to 2022. Using social network analysis, the study examines the structural characteristics of the trade network formed by these 66 countries. The DI-SIM co-clustering algorithm is employed to categorize the import and export relationships within the network, while the TERGM is used to explore the influencing factors of the grain trade network among BRI countries. The main conclusions drawn from the analysis are as follows:
1) China's Import and Export Trade: From 2003 to 2007, China was a grain-exporting country. However, post-2008, China's grain imports consistently exceeded its exports, and the trade gap between imports and exports gradually widened: in 2003, imports were about $900 million less than exports, but by 2022, imports exceeded exports by approximately $3.1 billion.
2) Network Centrality: Following the signing of the BRI agreement, the out-degree centrality of India and Turkey significantly increased, with India consistently maintaining the highest out-degree centrality. Since 2003, the in-degree centrality of the UAE and Turkey has remained relatively high. India, Thailand, and Ukraine have a considerable number of grain export partners, while the UAE has numerous grain import partners. The in-degree centrality among BRI countries generally remains low, with Russia, India, and Turkey being the most important intermediary countries, possessing substantial network influence and coordination abilities. The intermediary role of the UAE has gradually strengthened since 2018. Additionally, Russia and Turkey serve as both major exporters and importers within the grain trade network, fulfilling multiple important roles. In terms of total export volumes, India, Russia, and Ukraine are the leading grainexporting nations, with their export volumes significantly higher than those of other countries; however, in 2022, Russia ceased grain exports to other nations. China is a major grain-importing country, especially after 2018, when its grain import volume surged, making it the highest among all BRI countries.
3) Influencing Factors of the Grain Trade Network among BRI Countries: By comparing the grain trade networks before and after 2013, it can be observed that in both the sending and receiving effects, except for grain yield, the effects of GDP, total population, and total fertility rate maintain a consistent direction, though the significance and effect strength have changed. In terms of mismatching, greater differences in total population are more favorable for the formation of grain trade relationships between countries, while larger disparities in grain yields tend to inhibit the establishment of trade relationships. However, these promoting and inhibiting effects have weakened since 2013. Greater disparities in GDP correlate with fewer grain trade relationships between countries. The inhibiting effect of geographical distance on grain trade has diminished after 2013, while the promoting effect of geographical proximity has slightly increased, suggesting that the BRI has facilitated grain trade interactions among the countries along the route to some extent, aiding in the formation of trade relationships. Cultural concepts had a suppressive effect on grain trade before and after 2013, but it was not significant. Delayed reciprocity was not significant from 2003 to 2013, but became positive and significant from 2013 to 2022, indicating that the one-way grain import-export relationships between countries after 2013 contribute to the later formation of bilateral trade. Stability was significantly positive both before and after 2013, with the coefficient increasing after 2013, indicating that the grain trade network patterns among the countries along the route have become increasingly stable.