On The Reproductive Number of HIV/AIDS Patients in Nigeria
Abstract
This paper presents the basic reproductive number of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria as well as endemic prevalence using the SIR model developed by Mckendric (2001). The Basic reproduction number Ro determines if the disease is transmissible or it will die a natural death, and the endemic prevalence gives a clue on the rate of transmission of the disease. This study obtained both the Ro and the endemic prevalence as a tool for controlling the endemic in an SIR model of disease dynamics.
Keywords
Download Options
Introduction
HIV/AIDS has become a worldwide known epidemic due to its incurable nature. Government at all levels and nongovernmental organizations as well as international organizations like UN, WHO, USAID have made efforts in ensuring the reduction in its spread through the media and other means. Others like the Society for Family Health, National Agency for the Control of Aids and have also contributed to the campaign against the spread of the epidemic. In the last one decade the use of internet and communication courriers have been seriously explored. The basic reproductive number is the average number of secondary cases of infection generated by one primary case in a susceptible population. It is a measure of how many other people that infected persons would infect before they either died or ceased to be infected. If Ro<1 it implies that for every new infection, less than one subsequent infection occurs, hence the disease will eventually die out. The Ro can also be obtained if the endemic prevalence is known or vice versa. Hence for a disease to be transmissible to R>1.
Conclusion
The basic reproductive number Ro and the endemic prevalence play a vital role in the determining the status of a diseases.
When Ro is less than 1, it implies that for every new infection, less than one subsequent infection occurs, hence the disease will eventually die out. With R=1.1 and the endemic prevalence of 0.06, more than one infection will occur for every new infection.
Therefore, if the basic reproductive number can be brought below 1.0, which can be done through several means like campaign against the disease, awareness on radio and television as well as the internet, the prevalence will be reduced and it can then be brought under control.